The upcoming presidential elections in Turkey pose a crucial juncture for the country. The election, slated for June 24, is being perceived as a battle between freedom and dictatorship. In the wake of the poll-related violence, opposition threats, and accusations of manipulation, there is growing international criticism of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s autocratic leadership style.
While Turkey’s current economic woes are anticipated to be top of mind for registered voters, Erdogan is also facing a united and well-organized opposition coalition, headed by the leader of the Republican People’s Party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who has the support of 50.9% of the vote, according to the latest poll. Erdogan’s track record for manipulating elections has drawn much criticism from across the political spectrum.
Erdogan’s heavy-handed tactics already backfired in the 2019 municipal elections, which saw the ruling party lose almost all of Turkey’s major cities. If Erdogan loses by a small margin in the upcoming election, he may try to declare that the election was stolen and appeal to the bureaucracy to back him. However, Turkish bureaucrats are reportedly hedging their bets, making it unlikely that they would back Erdogan after an election loss, and risk legal repercussions under the new government. Furthermore, the fact that a trial and potential jail time are unlikely makes it easier for Erdogan to accept defeat.
Considering Erdogan’s lengthy rule in Turkey, the opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu has emerged as a strong contender, with the support of six opposition parties, garnering considerable support from Kurdish and younger voters who are critical of Erdogan’s economic policies and reputedly authoritarian manner.
In contrast, Erdogan has promised to create six million jobs and build a strong, multilateral Turkey. However, polls suggest that Erdogan’s right-wing alliance will edge out the opposition bloc in the upcoming parliamentary election. Kilicdaroglu wants to hand back many of the powers Erdogan has amassed since a failed coup in 2016, which would require the opposition to win Sunday’s parallel legislative election. Alternatively, the opposition bloc and its left-wing alliances, which represent the Kurdish vote, would need to secure a majority to succeed. Polls suggest that Erdogan’s nationalist stance could still potentially sway voters, particularly religious conservatives, rural voters, and small business owners.
A Kilicdaroglu win could potentially result in a return to a pro-Western, democratic stance, with independent courts and a free press. He is advocating to restore the Central Bank’s independence and intends to mend ties with Turkey’s NATO allies. Furthermore, he has surrounded himself with economists trusted by Western investors, suggesting a potential return to orthodox economic policies.
In conclusion, Turkey is on the brink of a crucial moment for its democratic future. Erdogan faces significant opposition and a weak economy, but his sway with rural voters and nationalists could still see him through the elections. As noted by Soner Cagaptay, a fellow at the Washington Institute, the result of the election could be crucial to the country’s democratic future. Only time will tell which side of this crucial moment the country will end up on.
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