The United Kingdom’s Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, recently made a pledge to support Ukraine by providing defence missiles and long-range attack drones, among other things, while hosting a visit from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Chequers, the Prime Minister’s country estate. This support comes as Ukraine continues to battle Russian-backed separatists in its eastern Donbas region. However, as Ukraine launches a new counteroffensive against Russian forces in Bakhmut, it is essential to understand what constitutes success and failure for both sides to limit the effect of armchair general analysis.
According to the Director of the Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence & Global Affairs, Joshua C. Huminski, the public needs to be informed of the strategic and political context of the war and manage their expectations. He suggests that the war is unlikely to be decided by the success or failure of this offensive, but it is unlikely to stop either side from sustaining operations in the future regardless of the success of this campaign. It is also essential to understand that Ukraine’s political objective is unclear, which is raising both diplomatic and military implications for the region.
Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges has said he expects Ukraine’s anticipated counteroffensive against Russia to ultimately succeed. Ukrainian forces will need to meet three conditions, according to Hodges: to have strong and successful troops; Russia’s forces to be degraded; and the weather to be dry. “The Ukrainians have worked hard to build up several armoured brigades that will be used to penetrate these long, linear Russian defences,” he said.
Ukraine’s newly equipped and armed forces, consisting of up to 12 newly formed brigades, three-quarters of which have been working with NATO and US trainers in a tactic known as combined arms manoeuvres, are newly prepared. Ukraine will go into their offensive with more than $32bn in weapons and security assistance from US arsenals, plus billions more from European allies.
However, Western assessments note that attrition continues to favour Russia due to growing impatience among some Western backers for arming Ukraine, with some actively pushing for a ceasefire or peace negotiations. The battle will be the longest and bloodiest of the Ukraine-Russia war, with totemic significance for Moscow, who currently do not have any other aspects of a winter campaign to show for the cost of thousands of lives.
As Ukraine prepares for this significant offensive, it is essential that the public understands the implications of success and failure, the strategic and political context of the war, and what the overall strategic and political picture is instilling in people’s minds. Defining what success and failure mean for both sides will also have significant political implications for Ukraine and the West. As President Zelenskyy stated, the situation is a matter of security not only for Ukraine, but for all of Europe.
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