The National Hurricane Center has issued an alert that a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico as early as today. The system is expected to hover in the northeastern Gulf until Thursday night, then move south on Friday. While environmental conditions may not be favorable for additional development beyond this weekend, Florida residents are being warned to expect heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding.
Meteorologists predict that 1-2 inches of rain will fall on northern Florida, while the southern half of the state may receive 2-4 inches or more, depending on the track and strength of the storm. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has urged residents to stay informed and prepare emergency kits, reminding them that hurricane season officially began on June 1st.
This season, top forecasters from Colorado State University predict that 15 named storms and seven hurricanes will develop, while the National Hurricane Center anticipates a total of 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine of which could become hurricanes, with one to four possibly becoming major hurricanes. In preparation, the center has commissioned a storm surge model that will allow authorities to issue evacuation orders up to 72 hours prior to a storm’s potential impact.
However, forecasting is an inexact science, and the 2022 season saw Hurricane Elsa hit Florida as one of the deadliest and most destructive storms on record, despite early forecasts predicting a hyperactive season. Experts caution that this year, there may be fewer storms but more intense ones due to record warm water temperatures in typical hurricane breeding grounds, a result of climate change.
Despite these predictions, residents are urged to focus on preparedness rather than fear. Experts advise having a clear plan in the event of a worst-case scenario. Preparedness includes creating an emergency kit, developing an evacuation plan, and being aware of weather alerts and advisories. It is important to be self-sufficient for at least a week without electricity, internet, or phone service.
As tropical storm outlooks are being extended to seven days, residents can receive advance warning of severe weather events. In Southwest Louisiana, where hurricanes can be particularly devastating, residents need to be proactive and make preparations now. The KPLC First Alert weather team is monitoring the tropics and can provide detailed weather information and updates through their app.
While social media armchair experts may try to offer advice, it is important to rely on experienced forecasters for guidance and prepare for a potentially active hurricane season. The storm names for the 2023 season are the same as those used in 2005, with catastrophic storms replaced with new names. As always, it is important to remain calm, stay informed, and be prepared.
